Roatan Weather for Wednesday, Sept. 22, 2008

The Roatan Weather Forecast
As presented by 

CoCoView Resort 

http://www.cocoviewresort.com/

For information or reservations call 800-282-8932

http://www.roatan.com/ 

 CoCoView is located

at

16.3°N Latitude x 86.5°W Longitude
in the
NW Caribbean Sea

and

Radio Roatan, FM 101.1 

For Wednesday, Sept 22, 2010

Again, we will have mostly sunny skies with high level cloudiness. The seas are choppy with wave heights of 2 to 4 feet. They can, occasionally, be higher. Winds have resumed their easterly flow of 10 to 15 knots. Wind and seas may strengthen later today.

Tropical wave 95L continues to move west across the Eastern Caribbean today. 

Then it will move across the central Caribbean on Thursday, reaching the Western 

Caribbean by Friday. The NHC is giving this system a 50% chance of developing 

into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Conditions remain very conducive for

further development. It remains a potentially serious threat to the Bay Islands

for this weekend.

All interests in the Bay Islands should closely monitor the development of 

this system as it moves towards us.

Remember, we are at the height of the hurricane season. You should have your 

hurricane preparedness plans completed and in place! 

Analysis and Discussion  of 95L

Figure 1 below, is the Computer Track Model Run for 100922 

at 1200 am LT. 

This type of cumulative graphic display is often called the "Spaghetti Model"  

for obvious reasons.

From the latest data, the only conclusions that can be drawn are: 

1. 95L is still a potentially dangerous low pressure system which may further 

    develop and intensify .

2. It can make landfall any where between the Bay Islands and the coast of 

    Nicaragua. However, the "spaghetti models" spread is narrowing into

    two general paths. Landfall in Nicaragua is now predicted by most computer

    models. See Figures 1, 2, & 3 below.The other path will take the storm to

    north of the islands.

3. The effects of 95L will possibly be felt in the Bay Islands and on the North 

    Coast of Honduras as early as this Friday and no later than Sunday,

    Sept. 26, 2010.

4. When 95L moves through this area, it could be anything from a tropical 

    storm to a hurricane in strength. Figure 4 shows predicted storm strengths.

5. It may disrupt air traffic in the Bay Islands and on the North Coast of

    Honduras this weekend.

I will update this section during the day, as newer information 

becomes available.

Elsewhere in the tropics:  

Hurricane Igor continues north. Tropical Storm Lisa is in the Eastern Tropical 

Atlantic Ocean. None of these systems pose a threat to the Bay Islands. 

The air temperatures will be in the mid to high 80s (F) or 27 - 29 (C).

Ocean water temperatures are about 85F to 87F or 29C to 30C.

The tides:                                                                                Moon and Sun

low tide | 1:43 am LT                                                            Moon Rise – 5:26 pm LT

high tide | 8:00 am LT                                                           Moon Set - 4:56 am LT

low tide | 1:44 pm LT                                                            Sunrise - 5:36 am LT

high tide |7:37 pm LT                                                            Sunset - 5:44 pm LT

Fig 1 - Computer Model run-100922-1200am LT

If you have the free GOOGLE EARTH installed,
you can view this chart in near real-time and auto updating
by clicking on THIS LINK

Fig 2 - Select Computer Track Models valid 100922_2 am

Fig 3 -Ensemble Computer Track Model

Fig 4 - Forecast Intensity