4pm Update, Mon 101011

At 3pm EDT, 98L was designated Tropical Storm Paula. It was centered at 16N x 84W and was moving NW at 9 mph with maximum sustained winds of 60 mph. The central pressure was 1000mb and falling. So far intensification has been inhibited by the close proximity to land, but as it gets out over the open ocean it will strengthen.
There is a tropical storm warning in effect for the Bay Islands and the North Coast of Honduras.
The figures below show center storm positions, projected tracks and wind field probabilities. Remember these are 5 day forecasts and there maybe an error of 200 to 300 miles. We may get winds ranging from 35 to 75 mph. If it stays on the projected track it will pass to the NE of us.
I will probably post again around 9pm tonight.
Have a good evening! 

Fig 1 - TS Paula center at 3pm LT 101011

 

 

Fig 2 - TS Paula_5 day track forecast

Fig 3 - TS Paula 5 Day Wind Probabilities_101011

Fig 4 - Project Track for Mon. and Tues.