Roatan Weather Forecast for Friday, August 19, 2011

The NHC 5am EDT (3am LT) advisory on TD 8 pretty much says it all:

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BEEN EASY TO LOCATE THIS
MORNING.  BASED ON EXTRAPOLATION FROM EARLIER MICROWAVE DATA...THE
CENTER IS ESTIMATED TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF A SMALL
CLUSTER OF DEEP CONVECTION OFF THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS. 
THIS YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/10.  THE DEPRESSION
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN A MORE-OR-LESS WESTWARD MOTION FOR THE
REMAINDER OF ITS EXISTENCE WHILE BEING STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE
LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES AT THE SOUTHERN
EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...NEAR THE GFS...ECMWF...AND THE
SIMPLER BAM MODELS.  ALTHOUGH A 72 HOUR FORECAST POINT IS
PROVIDED...IT IS LIKELY THAT THE HIGH TERRAIN OF GUATEMALA AND
SOUTHERN MEXICO WILL HAVE ANNIHILATED THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION BY
THAT TIME.

From satellite imagery it appears that the main part of the storm remains offshore 

(See Figs 1 & 2).

Expect increasing cloudiness, wind and heavy rain ( 2 to 8 inches) as TD8 moves W towards us.

Fig 1 - Water Vapor Image of TD 8 at 0415 am, Fri. 110819 

Fig 2 - Water Vapor Close Up Image of TD 8 at 0315 am, Fri. 110819

Fig 3 shows the official NHC forecast track of TD 8. This forecasts TD 8 will not be past us until tomorrow afternoon.

Fig 3 - NHC Forecast Track for TD 8 at 3am, Fri. 110819

The next post will be at 10am LT or as updates become available