Roatan Rag: Roatan Weather Forecast for Sunday October 16, 2011

Roatan Weather Forecast

As presented by Radio Roatan, FM 101.1 or www.roatanradio.com

and

CoCoView Resort, www.cocoviewresort.com, 800-282-8932

CoCoView is at 16.4°N Latitude x 86.4°W Longitude

In the

NW Caribbean Sea

Sunday October 16, 2011

Again today, it will be mostly cloudy with some sunny periods. There is a chance for rain showers and thunderstorms. Seas will be choppy at 2 to 4 feet in height. Early in the day, winds, will be mostly westerly at 15 to 20 mph or less. Winds will shift to the east late this afternoon.

This morning, the broad low pressure system over us, is centered 60 miles NNE of Chetumal, Mexico. It is still producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms across the northwestern Caribbean Sea and adjacent land masses. This system has a 50 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours. Locally heavy rains will likely continue over Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula, Cuba and adjacent islands during the next couple of days. This system has been designated 95L by the NHC.

In addition, strong gusty winds to tropical storm force, will be possible over the waters of the NW Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico over the next couple of days. On the 5:15 am satellite images, it looks like the circulation has tightened up and a tropical depression has formed. See Fig 1 below.

I will try to post an update after the NHC update at noon EDT today.

Fig 1 – IR Satellite Image, 111016_0515 am LT

Fig 2 – 95L's track to date

A weak cold front extends from the Florida Keys to the Bay of Campeche, Mexico. It has stalled out and will begin to dissipate later today and Monday. On Tuesday, another cold front will move rapidly SE across the western Gulf of Mexico. By Wednesday, it will over take and absorb the remnants of the old front. This cold front will push into the NW Caribbean on Wednesday and reach from central Cuba to Gulf of Honduras by late Thursday.

The air temperatures will be in the high 70s mid to the mid 80s (F) or 25 to 29 (C).

At depth, ocean water temperatures are about 82F to 88F or 28C to 31C . Visibility is generally 20 to 60 feet below the thermocline.

Fig 3 – Today's Wind Forecast

Fig 4 – Today's Graphicast

The Tropical Weather Outlook

An area of low pressure is located in the Eastern Tropical Atlantic Ocean about 1050 miles west- southwest of the Cape Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this low is expected to be slow to occur, due to marginal upper-level winds. This system has a low chance, 10 percent, of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours as it moves to the west at about 15 mph. Thunderstorm activity in association with this low has increased.